摘 要：為更加準(zhǔn)確揭示足球技戰(zhàn)術(shù)表現(xiàn)與比賽勝負(fù)的關(guān)系，以2014—2016賽季中國足球超級聯(lián)賽結(jié)果（不包含平局）為樣本（n=519場），采用二元Logistic回歸模型，通過同時(shí)納入主客場、球隊(duì)實(shí)力和對方球隊(duì)實(shí)力3種比賽情境并進(jìn)行組合，共得到8種不同形式的多重比賽情境，分別對其影響比賽勝負(fù)的關(guān)鍵技戰(zhàn)術(shù)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行探析。研究結(jié)果顯示：（1）上游球隊(duì)主場比賽，對陣上游球隊(duì)時(shí)，射正次數(shù)、攻入35 m次數(shù)、傳中次數(shù)、對等拼搶成功率是影響比賽勝率的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)；對陣下游球隊(duì)時(shí)，射正次數(shù)、角球數(shù)、對等拼搶成功率、紅牌是影響比賽勝率的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)。（2）下游球隊(duì)主場比賽，對陣上游球隊(duì)時(shí)，射正次數(shù)、控球率是影響比賽勝率的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)；對陣下游球隊(duì)，射正次數(shù)、總傳球成功率、角球數(shù)、向前傳球數(shù)、對等拼搶成功率是影響比賽勝率的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)。（3）上游球隊(duì)客場比賽，對陣上游球隊(duì)時(shí)，射正次數(shù)、對等拼搶成功率是影響比賽勝率的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)；對陣下游球隊(duì)，射正次數(shù)、越位次數(shù)、黃牌是影響比賽勝率的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)。（4）下游球隊(duì)客場比賽，對陣上游球隊(duì)，射正次數(shù)、控球率、攻入禁區(qū)次數(shù)是影響比賽勝率的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)；對陣下游球隊(duì)，射正次數(shù)、對方半場控球率、對等拼搶成功率是影響比賽勝率的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)。
　　關(guān) 鍵 詞：競賽與訓(xùn)練；多重比賽情境；技戰(zhàn)術(shù)表現(xiàn)；比賽勝負(fù)；中超足球聯(lián)賽；Logistic回歸模型
　　中圖分類號：G843 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A 文章編號：1006-7116（2018）02-0122-06
　　Effects of the technical and tactical performance of Chinese Football Association Super League teams on game winning or losing under multiple competition
　　JIANG Zhe，HUANG Zhu-hang，WU Fang
　�。⊿chool of Physical Education，Beijing Sport University，Beijing 100084，China）
　　Abstract： In order to more accurately reveal the relationship between football technical and tactical performance and game winning or losing， based on Chinese Football Association Super League competition results （tie games excluded） of the 2014–2016 competition seasons as the samples （n=519 match）， by using a binary logistic regression model， and by simultaneously including such 3 competition scenarios as competition location， team strength and opponent team strength and carrying out combination， the authors derived totally 8 different forms of multiple completion scenarios， respectively analyzed their key technical and tactical indexes that affected game winning or losing， and revealed the following findings： 1） in a home game， when an upstream team played against an upstream team， shorts on target， 35m entries， passes succeeded and peer challenge success rate were game winning probability affecting key indexes； when it played against a downstream team， shots on target， corner kicks， peer challenge success rate and red cards were game winning probability affecting key indexes； 2） in a home game， when a downstream team played against an upstream team， shorts on target and possession percentage were game winning probability affecting key indexes； when it played against a downstream team， shots on target， total pass success rate， corner kicks， forward passes and peer challenge success rate were game winning probability affecting key indexes； 3） in an away game， when an upstream team played against an upstream team， shots on target and peer challenge success rate were game winning probability affecting key indexes； when it played against a downstream team， shots on target， offside counts and yellow cards were game winning probability affecting key indexes； 4） in an away game， when a downstream team played against an upstream team， shots on target， possession percentage and penalty area entries were game winning probability affecting key indexes； when it played against a downstream team， shots on target， opponent court possession percentage and peer challenge success rate were game winning probability affecting key indexes.

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